What Washington Gets Wrong About China’s Strategy in Iran and the Middle East
Former State Department official Lauren Barney explains how Beijing supports Tehran, courts Israel and the Gulf, and expands its influence without assuming the costs of regional security.
Is China really replacing the United States in the Middle East, or has Washington misunderstood what Beijing is trying to achieve?
The war with Iran has revived a familiar Washington story: every conflict is another front in the U.S.-China rivalry. But Beijing’s actual strategy in the Middle East is more opportunistic, and more revealing, than the proxy-war frame suggests. China sustains Iran without fully betting on it, builds influence across the Gulf while avoiding the costs of regional security, and turns American intervention into evidence for its own vision of global order. From oil flows and sanctions evasion to Beijing’s limited record as a mediator, the deeper question is not whether China is replacing the United States in the Middle East, but how it continues expanding its position while leaving Washington to carry the risk.
Lauren Barney joins Chelsea on the Potentia Podcast on the heels of Trump reopening the Iran war — and a political problem he can’t shake — to discuss why the Iran war is not simply another front in the U.S.-China rivalry, how Beijing supports Tehran without absorbing its risks, and where Washington still holds the regional advantage.
Tune in for this thoughtful interview, listen or watch! We hope you enjoy it as much as we did.
“China’s strategy of support without exposure and sympathy without accountability is precisely what allows China to ‘play all sides’ without paying the costs either side might otherwise impose.” — Lauren Barney
Guest
Lauren Barney, Leading China-expert and former Foreign Affairs Officer at the U.S. Department of State. She was previously a Security Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy and a contractor at the State Department’s Office of China Coordination. The views expressed here are her own.
Carve-outs
Xiangqi and China’s Do-Nothing Strategy in the Middle East. China is not playing American chess. There is a mirroring error in Washington, where policymakers assume Beijing organizes its relationships with Iran and the Middle East according to the same rules, priorities and pieces as the United States.
The Saudi-Iran agreement in Beijing. The 2023 agreement restoring diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran was widely presented as a major Chinese mediation victory. In discussion, Lauren offers a more restrained interpretation: Beijing provided the venue and captured the diplomatic prestige, but it is less clear how much brokering China actually did or what leverage it retains over either side.
Ambassador Deborah Lipstadt. While at the State Department, Lauren worked with the Office of the Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Antisemitism as officials raised concerns about antisemitic rhetoric circulating in China. Lipstadt, a leading Holocaust historian, served as the U.S. special envoy from 2022 to 2025.
China’s Global Security Initiative. Alongside the Belt and Road Initiative, China promotes the Global Development, Global Security and Global Civilization initiatives as components of an alternative vision for international order.
China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. China joined the WTO in December 2001 after 15 years of negotiations.
Diplomacy “off the ball.” Borrowing from football during World Cup season, Lauren describes diplomacy as more than the player controlling the ball. Bilateral negotiations happen in public, while diplomats simultaneously move through conversations with allies, rivals and regional partners, making requests and shaping the conditions around the formal talks.
Key points
The Iran war is not a proxy war with China: U.S.-China competition shapes the surrounding environment, but it does not explain the origins, objectives or military logic of the conflict.
Support without exposure: Beijing can protect Iran economically, oppose American sanctions and amplify Tehran’s claims without accepting responsibility for Iran’s security or regional conduct.
The energy relationship is deeply asymmetric: China buys most of Iran’s exported oil, but Iranian crude supplies only a small portion of China’s overall consumption. Iran depends on the relationship more heavily.
China’s diplomatic influence has limits: Beijing can provide a venue, issue peace frameworks and promote itself as a neutral alternative, but those actions have not consistently produced enforceable de-escalation.
Washington’s mirroring error: American policymakers often assume China wants to replace the United States in every role. Beijing may be more interested in gaining influence without inheriting the costs of military protection, conflict management and regional accountability.
The United States remains the security power: Gulf states may deepen commercial ties with China, but they continue to depend on the United States for military protection, forward deployment and regional deterrence.
Primary-source knowledge matters: Understanding China requires Mandarin skills, sustained experience inside the country and engagement with how Chinese officials and citizens interpret American politics.
Links
Lauren’s upcoming article on the topic!! Stay posted for update
China’s Do-Nothing Strategy in the Middle East: Beijing Needs a Safe Red Sea—but Wants Washington to Deliver It - Lauren’s Foreign Affairs feature
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